Director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center in the National Security Research Division of RAND
Not Clearly Pro or Con to the question "Should the US Have Attacked Iraq?"
"I assumed that the administration and the U.S. military would have incorporated lessons from the '90s and taken the kind of preparatory steps that would have at least ameliorated many of the difficulties that eventually arose. I assumed, for instance, that there would be substantial numbers of military police and the forces that were available to move into the major cities immediately after the collapse of the regime. I assumed that they would anticipate that the regime's security apparatus would disintegrate... [and] that maintaining security would fall heavily on U.S. and coalition forces. I assumed that they would have prepared commanders to assume that responsibility, to take that responsibility early on.
These assumptions were incorrect. We didn't pre-position significant numbers of military police; we hadn't prepared commanders to assume responsibility for public security rapidly; and we didn't anticipate that the regime's security apparatus would disintegrate and become largely useless. I think we should have, because this is, broadly speaking, what had happened in each of the previous episodes over the last decade. But I think that the administration had chosen to look to a different set of models and a different set of experiences for inspiration, and I think that that misled them as to the difficulties they were likely to encounter."
"The Lost Year in Iraq; Interview: James Dobbins," Frontline, June 27, 2006
Cowritten with Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, and Beth Cole DeGrasse, "The Beginner's Guide to Nation-Building," RAND Corp. publication, 2007
"The Lost Year in Iraq," interview on Frontline, Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), June 27, 2006
"Iraq: Winning the Unwinnable War," Foreign Affairs, Jan./Feb. 2005
Cowritten with Seth G. Jones, Keith Crane, Andrew Rathmell, Brett Steele, Richard Teltschik, and Anga R. Timilsina, "The UN's Role in Nation-Building: From the Congo to Iraq," RAND Corp. publication, 2005
Cowritten with John G. McGinn, Keith Crane, Seth G. Jones, Rollie Lal, Andrew Rathmell, Rachel M. Swanger, and Anga R. Timilsina, "America's Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq," RAND Corp. publication, 2003